A practicing semiconductor engineer's daily read on global silicon news:
Nomura's ₩4M SK hynix target and Kioxia's 48x quarterly profit guide push memory revaluation into structural-growth territory, while Samsung's May 14 warm-down and the May 21 45,000-person strike threaten to gut HBM4 supply already sold out for 2026.
Chase's Take — Nomura's ₩4M SK hynix call is effectively a declaration that Korean memory deserves a TSMC multiple — and for the re-rate from ~6x fwd PER to TSMC's 18~22x to fully play out, HBM4/HBM4E pricing power has to hold for the next 4~6 quarters. The problem is that the biggest swing factors for that pricing power dropped the same week: Samsung's 18-day strike and SMIC's 'overseas orders reshoring to China' remark. With memory inventory at just 4~6 weeks, a DRAM 3~4% / NAND 2~3% disruption sends ASP non-linear — paradoxically validating Nomura's ₩4M scenario in the process. SMIC's +43% QoQ opex blowup and 18.9% smartphone mix, on the other hand, read as the opening shot of a legacy-node price war — sub-28nm pressure will accumulate on Korean/Taiwanese OSAT pricing. From an STA lens, HBM4 base-die 4nm yield and SoIC bonding alignment will set next quarter's ASP, and the first signal is whether Nvidia's May 20 FQ1 sharpens GR300 ramp guidance. Next watch-points: (1) May 18 NLRC final mediation, (2) May 20 Nvidia print + any Rubin pull-in commentary, (3) June 2 WSTS spring forecast — these three events are the first stress test of the Nomura scenario.
1. Nomura: SK hynix ₩4M, Samsung ₩590K — record-high targets
TL;DR — In a May 17 note, Nomura raised SK hynix from ₩2,340,000 to ₩4,000,000 and Samsung from ₩340,000 to ₩590,000. The ₩4M SK hynix target is a first globally, implying ~120% upside from the May 15 close.
Source: MoneyToday — Nomura: SK hynix ₩4M, Samsung ₩590K — record-high targets
2. Hana Securities' Kim Rok-ho: Samsung ₩430K — betting on 2H foundry breakeven
TL;DR — Hana Securities analyst Kim Rok-ho raised Samsung's target to ₩430,000 (BUY) on May 15, premised on a 2H 2026 foundry turn driven by 4nm yield stabilization and rising Nvidia/Groq/HBM base-die shipments.
Source: BizWatch — Hana Securities' Kim Rok-ho: Samsung ₩430K — betting on 2H foundry breakeven
3. Kioxia guides 48x April-quarter profit jump, eyes U.S. ADS listing
TL;DR — Kioxia guided April~June net income to ¥869B (48x YoY), revenue ¥1.75T (5.1x), OP ¥1.298T (29x) — 2.1x consensus of ¥405.6B — while unveiling plans for a U.S. ADS listing.
Source: TrendForce — Kioxia guides 48x April-quarter profit jump, eyes U.S. ADS listing
4. SMIC Q1 net profit up 5%, misses — smartphone share lowest since 2021
TL;DR — SMIC 1Q26 net income $197.4M (+5% YoY) missed consensus $223.6M; revenue $2.51B (+11.5%). Smartphone mix dropped to 18.9% (lowest since 2021), opex +30% YoY / +43% QoQ. Co-CEO Zhao Haijun stated on the call that overseas customers are moving orders into China.
Source: TrendForce — SMIC Q1 net profit up 5%, misses — smartphone share lowest since 2021
5. Samsung kicks off May 14 warm-down — product mix shifts toward HBM
TL;DR — Ahead of the May 21 strike D-day, Samsung began 'warm-down' emergency procedures on May 14 at Pyeongtaek DRAM lines, pulling ~15,000 wafer storage pods from the dedicated logistics system and reallocating remaining capacity to HBM and other high-margin products.
Source: TrendForce — Samsung kicks off May 14 warm-down — product mix shifts toward HBM
6. 45,000-person strike at Samsung memory plants — HBM4 lines at risk
TL;DR — The May 21 18-day strike of 45,000 workers would be the largest stoppage in semiconductor industry history (Fortune 5/17). Samsung HBM4 — in mass production since February and effectively sold out for 2026 — sits directly in the blast radius. JPMorgan estimates 2026E OP impact of -7~12% under full union demands.
Source: Fortune — 45,000-person strike at Samsung memory plants — HBM4 lines at risk
7. TechInsights Semi Analytics (May 14, 2026) — DRAM IC 13W MA back to YoY+
TL;DR — TechInsights' May 15 'Semiconductor Analytics – May 14, 2026' shows weekly semi sales up WoW and YoY, with the DRAM IC 13-week moving average re-entering YoY-positive territory (data through May 8). A high-frequency signal ahead of the monthly WSTS print.
Source: TechInsights — TechInsights Semi Analytics (May 14, 2026) — DRAM IC 13W MA back to YoY+
8. Taiwan IC revenue surges 29% in 1Q26 — full-year outlook tops US$270B
TL;DR — Per DIGITIMES (5/15), Taiwan's IC industry posted 1Q26 revenue of NT$1.93T (~US$61.9B), +29% YoY, driven by foundry and memory. Full-year 2026 is now expected to top US$270B — quantitative confirmation of AI demand plus memory rebound.
Source: DIGITIMES — Taiwan IC revenue surges 29% in 1Q26 — full-year outlook tops US$270B
9. China rare-earth compound exports fall 17% in value — alt supply chains gain (US DoD $200B)
TL;DR — Per TrendForce (5/18), China's rare-earth compound export value fell 17%, with dysprosium oxide -65%, terbium -59%, yttrium -53% by volume. The U.S. DoD's 'Deal Team Six' is deploying up to $200B over three years into non-China permanent-magnet, refining, and mining capacity.
