VLSI KoreaDaily Silicon: TSMC $1.5T Forecast, AMAT Record Quarter, Korea Chips +173%
TL;DR — At its May 14-15 annual technology symposium, TSMC raised its 2030 global semiconductor market outlook from $1T to $1.5T, with AI/HPC explicitly pegg...
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A practicing semiconductor engineer's daily read on global silicon news:
TSMC lifted its 2030 chip-market forecast to $1.5T while AMAT printed a record quarter and Korea's April chip exports hit $31.91B (+173.3% YoY) — four data points pointing the same direction on structural supply tightness.
Chase's Take — TSMC bumping the 2030 TAM from $1T to $1.5T isn't optimism — it's pre-justification for the next capex guide. The real tell is CoWoS CAGR 80% (2022-27): the bottleneck this cycle is advanced packaging, not EUV. AMAT's Q3 guide of $8.95B (±$0.5B) means HBM-DRAM 1c-node and advanced-packaging tool revenue showed up in the same quarter, and the September quarter has to confirm it. Korea's +173.3% chip export print survives base-effect haircuts because the absolute $31.91B is an all-time April high — ASP lift is overwhelming weak units. SMIC bragging that 'foreign clients are routing orders back to China' is the inverse signal of decoupling: the global capacity squeeze isn't just a Korea/Taiwan story. Next watch-point: whether Samsung's 18-day strike actually starts May 21 — if it does, SK hynix and Micron get a short-term tailwind and DRAM ASPs grind higher; if it breaks, the pricing momentum cools a notch. Track H200 China shipments alongside it — the licenses cleared but Beijing is blocking purchases to protect domestic industry, which only accelerates Huawei Ascend and SMIC 7nm capacity build-out.
1. TSMC raises 2030 global chip market forecast to $1.5T as AI demand surges — AI/HPC 55%
TL;DR — At its May 14-15 annual technology symposium, TSMC raised its 2030 global semiconductor market outlook from $1T to $1.5T, with AI/HPC explicitly pegged at 55% of the mix.
2. Applied Materials Q2 FY26 revenue $7.91B all-time high — Q3 guide $8.95B
TL;DR — AMAT reported Q2 FY2026 revenue of $7.91B (+11% YoY, record), non-GAAP EPS $2.86 (+20% YoY), and guided Q3 to $8.95B ±$500M with non-GAAP EPS $3.36 ±$0.20.
Source: StockTitan — Applied Materials Q2 FY26 revenue $7.91B all-time high — Q3 guide $8.95B
3. SMIC Q1 2026 — revenue $2.6B (+8.1%), Q2 guidance +14% to 16% sequential
TL;DR — SMIC reported Q1 2026 revenue of 17.62B yuan (~$2.6B, +8.1% YoY) with net profit +0.4% YoY (+11% QoQ), and guided Q2 revenue +14% to 16% QoQ at 20% to 22% gross margin.
Source: BigGo Finance — SMIC Q1 2026 — revenue $2.6B (+8.1%), Q2 guidance +14% to 16% sequential
4. Hua Hong Semiconductor Q1 net surges 4.58x — Wuxi specialty 12-inch ramp
TL;DR — Hua Hong reported Q1 2026 revenue of US$660.9M (+22.2% YoY) and net profit of US$20.9M (4.58x surge YoY) at 13% gross margin, with Q2 guided to US$690-700M.
Source: The Standard — Hua Hong Semiconductor Q1 net surges 4.58x — Wuxi specialty 12-inch ramp
5. South Korea April ICT exports +125.9% all-time growth — semiconductors $31.91B (+173.3%)
TL;DR — Korea's Ministry of Trade reported April ICT exports of $42.71B (+125.9% YoY, record growth rate), with semiconductors at $31.91B (+173.3% YoY) — the highest-ever April figure.
Source: TechTimes — South Korea April ICT exports +125.9% all-time growth — semiconductors $31.91B (+173.3%)
6. TrendForce: Samsung strike contained on revenue — supports prices, risk shifts to SK hynix, Micron
TL;DR — TrendForce estimates a May 21 18-day Samsung union strike slowing production 5% would dent quarterly revenue under 1T won (vs ~23T won base), but ASP support and customer-defection risk turn it into a tailwind for SK hynix and Micron.
7. NVIDIA H200 cleared by U.S. for ~10 Chinese firms — 75,000-chip per-buyer cap, deliveries 0
TL;DR — Reuters reports US Commerce approved H200 sales licenses to Alibaba, Tencent, ByteDance, JD.com, Lenovo, Foxconn and others (cap 75,000 chips per buyer), but Beijing's stand-down order means actual deliveries remain zero.
8. Wells Fargo lifts Broadcom PT $430→$545 — 'AI demand 30-40% above consensus'
TL;DR — Wells Fargo raised AVGO PT to $545 (Overweight) after re-modeling AI chip demand on datacenter power capacity, finding it 30-40% above consensus and lifting out-year revenue 22% to 28%.
Source: GuruFocus — Wells Fargo lifts Broadcom PT $430→$545 — 'AI demand 30-40% above consensus'
Frequently Asked Questions
What is TSMC's 2030 chip market forecast?
TSMC raised its 2030 outlook from $1 trillion to $1.5 trillion at its May 14-15 technology symposium. AI and HPC are pegged at 55% of the mix.
What did Applied Materials report for Q2 FY26?
Applied Materials reported Q2 FY2026 revenue of $7.91 billion, up 11% year over year, and non-GAAP EPS of $2.86, up 20%. Q3 guidance is $8.95 billion, plus or minus $500 million.
How large were Korea's April semiconductor exports?
Korea's April semiconductor exports were $31.91 billion, up 173.3% year over year, the highest-ever April figure. Total April ICT exports were $42.71 billion, up 125.9%.
What did SMIC report and guide for 2026?
SMIC reported Q1 2026 revenue of about $2.6 billion, up 8.1% year over year. Q2 guidance is revenue growth of 14% to 16% sequentially at a 20% to 22% gross margin.
What is the status of NVIDIA H200 sales to China?
US licenses were approved for about 10 Chinese firms with a cap of 75,000 chips per buyer. Actual deliveries remain zero because purchases are being held back.
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