Daily Silicon: TSMC $1.5T Forecast, AMAT Record Quarter, Korea Chips +173%

A practicing semiconductor engineer's daily read on global silicon news:

TSMC lifted its 2030 chip-market forecast to $1.5T while AMAT printed a record quarter and Korea's April chip exports hit $31.91B (+173.3% YoY) — four data points pointing the same direction on structural supply tightness.

Chase's Take — TSMC bumping the 2030 TAM from $1T to $1.5T isn't optimism — it's pre-justification for the next capex guide. The real tell is CoWoS CAGR 80% (2022-27): the bottleneck this cycle is advanced packaging, not EUV. AMAT's Q3 guide of $8.95B (±$0.5B) means HBM-DRAM 1c-node and advanced-packaging tool revenue showed up in the same quarter, and the September quarter has to confirm it. Korea's +173.3% chip export print survives base-effect haircuts because the absolute $31.91B is an all-time April high — ASP lift is overwhelming weak units. SMIC bragging that 'foreign clients are routing orders back to China' is the inverse signal of decoupling: the global capacity squeeze isn't just a Korea/Taiwan story. Next watch-point: whether Samsung's 18-day strike actually starts May 21 — if it does, SK hynix and Micron get a short-term tailwind and DRAM ASPs grind higher; if it breaks, the pricing momentum cools a notch. Track H200 China shipments alongside it — the licenses cleared but Beijing is blocking purchases to protect domestic industry, which only accelerates Huawei Ascend and SMIC 7nm capacity build-out.

1. TSMC raises 2030 global chip market forecast to $1.5T as AI demand surges — AI/HPC 55%

TL;DR — At its May 14-15 annual technology symposium, TSMC raised its 2030 global semiconductor market outlook from $1T to $1.5T, with AI/HPC explicitly pegged at 55% of the mix.

Source: Proactive Investors — TSMC raises 2030 global chip market forecast to $1.5T as AI demand surges — AI/HPC 55%

2. Applied Materials Q2 FY26 revenue $7.91B all-time high — Q3 guide $8.95B

TL;DR — AMAT reported Q2 FY2026 revenue of $7.91B (+11% YoY, record), non-GAAP EPS $2.86 (+20% YoY), and guided Q3 to $8.95B ±$500M with non-GAAP EPS $3.36 ±$0.20.

Source: StockTitan — Applied Materials Q2 FY26 revenue $7.91B all-time high — Q3 guide $8.95B

3. SMIC Q1 2026 — revenue $2.6B (+8.1%), Q2 guidance +14% to 16% sequential

TL;DR — SMIC reported Q1 2026 revenue of 17.62B yuan (~$2.6B, +8.1% YoY) with net profit +0.4% YoY (+11% QoQ), and guided Q2 revenue +14% to 16% QoQ at 20% to 22% gross margin.

Source: BigGo Finance — SMIC Q1 2026 — revenue $2.6B (+8.1%), Q2 guidance +14% to 16% sequential

4. Hua Hong Semiconductor Q1 net surges 4.58x — Wuxi specialty 12-inch ramp

TL;DR — Hua Hong reported Q1 2026 revenue of US$660.9M (+22.2% YoY) and net profit of US$20.9M (4.58x surge YoY) at 13% gross margin, with Q2 guided to US$690-700M.

Source: The Standard — Hua Hong Semiconductor Q1 net surges 4.58x — Wuxi specialty 12-inch ramp

5. South Korea April ICT exports +125.9% all-time growth — semiconductors $31.91B (+173.3%)

TL;DR — Korea's Ministry of Trade reported April ICT exports of $42.71B (+125.9% YoY, record growth rate), with semiconductors at $31.91B (+173.3% YoY) — the highest-ever April figure.

Source: TechTimes — South Korea April ICT exports +125.9% all-time growth — semiconductors $31.91B (+173.3%)

6. TrendForce: Samsung strike contained on revenue — supports prices, risk shifts to SK hynix, Micron

TL;DR — TrendForce estimates a May 21 18-day Samsung union strike slowing production 5% would dent quarterly revenue under 1T won (vs ~23T won base), but ASP support and customer-defection risk turn it into a tailwind for SK hynix and Micron.

Source: TrendForce — TrendForce: Samsung strike contained on revenue — supports prices, risk shifts to SK hynix, Micron

7. NVIDIA H200 cleared by U.S. for ~10 Chinese firms — 75,000-chip per-buyer cap, deliveries 0

TL;DR — Reuters reports US Commerce approved H200 sales licenses to Alibaba, Tencent, ByteDance, JD.com, Lenovo, Foxconn and others (cap 75,000 chips per buyer), but Beijing's stand-down order means actual deliveries remain zero.

Source: BNN Bloomberg — NVIDIA H200 cleared by U.S. for ~10 Chinese firms — 75,000-chip per-buyer cap, deliveries 0

8. Wells Fargo lifts Broadcom PT $430→$545 — 'AI demand 30-40% above consensus'

TL;DR — Wells Fargo raised AVGO PT to $545 (Overweight) after re-modeling AI chip demand on datacenter power capacity, finding it 30-40% above consensus and lifting out-year revenue 22% to 28%.

Source: GuruFocus — Wells Fargo lifts Broadcom PT $430→$545 — 'AI demand 30-40% above consensus'